Friday, March 2, 2012

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    • MARCH 2, 2012

    BASEBALL ANALYTICS

    The highlight of the day, baseball analytics is up next.  Rob Neyer moderates Bill James,  Rocco Baldelli, Scott Boras, Mark Shapiro, and Jeff Luhnow.
    Update: The panel:
    image
    Update: Baldelli says players are not always aware of the numbers used to judge them, on asked how as view changed since moving to the front office.
    Update: Scott Boras talks about the different languages of baseball. The language of the player, the language of the front office, etc. When you negotiate, have to speak the language of the GM, depending on his background in the game.
    He also says analytics brought a talent level to the game (intellectual) that wasn’t there in the past. Helped bring in a common language.
    Update: Jeff Luhnow says there is no doubt that sports analytics helped the Cardinals win the World Series. He implemented analytics in St. Louis, and is doing the same in Houston. Top to bottom, the organization is on board with this.
    Update: Luhnow is talking about how to evaluate the distribution of talent for a player. What is the chance of him deviating from his expected norms?
    Update: Shapiro notes that there is a human element to all this. If a move doesn’t make sense, there might be something the team knows that you don’t.
    Update: Shapiro notes that analytics helps protect you from emotional momentum.
    Update: To Bill James, what is the next frontier? Bill wants more information on other leagues, schools, international. How do the various levels of competition fit together?
    Update: What don’t you know? Shapiro needs to sort what he doesn’t know by importance. Jeff wants to know the first team from Texas to win World Series.:-) He’d also like to see smart, outside people do a minimum salary simulation to see who generates the most wins.
    Update: Why do some players hit and some don’t? Who in the future is going to hit?
    Update: Neyer asks about drafts killing talent, using Puerto Rico as an example. Yes!
    Update: Boras says a lot of money should not be spent on the draft. He wants teams to have freedom to spend what they want on the draft.
    Update: Boras makes great points about freedom of intellect and parity.
    Update: Bill says the regulation of the draft will lead to a misallocation of talent.
    Update: Once again, an excellent panel. I do wish they would put a serious stats dissenter on the panel, however.
    Posted by David Pinto at 12:50 pm | Management, Statistics | Permalink | No Comments
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