Random ramblings of the chancellor, round 1:
10-12 team mixed league thoughts:
What do I do in the first and
second rounds?
- Chancellor’s
rule #1 – Don’t draft a pitcher or catcher in round 1 or 2.
- If
you have the first overall pick, and have a high appetite for risk, you go
fishing and catch Trout. If you
want safety and production, you take Miguel Cabrera.
- The
first three picks are virtually assured to be Trout, MCab, and Braun in some
order unless MLB really unearths some real dirt on Braun and he gets a 50-day
suspension. The next five are
likely to be Pujols, Cano, Kemp, Votto, and McCutcheon in some order. In a standard 5x5 league, I really like
McCutcheon and Cano. If you play
in a league with OBP instead of BA, Votto rises to the top. His likely .430 - .450 OBP is a real
game changer. If you like high
stakes gambling, Mr. Kemp is your man.
World of talent, proven past #1, prodigious speed and power. But the combination of injury and chick
risk moves him down on my ledger.
- The
next group consists of potentially studly OFs with risk – Carlos Gonzalez
(injuries), Josh Hamilton (injuries and tequila), Jose Bautista (injury
recovery), and Giancarlo Stanton (knee and team relocation to Canada), Justin
Upton (out of the hitters haven) – and a proven, albeit very large, asset at
1B, Prince Fielder. Some would put
Adrian Beltre and David Wright in this group.
- I
wouldn’t go near Troy Tulowitzki or Evan Longoria – injury risk is simply far
too extensive on either for me to be willing to part with one of my first two
picks.
- If
you just simply can not leave the first two rounds without a stud SP, take
Clayton Kershaw. I understand the
Verlander love, but he’s five years older than Kershaw and there’s horses in
animal rescue programs that haven’t been ridden as hard as Verlander has been
the past few years.
- Buster
Posey is shown as top 25 in many listings. Just say no.
For reference, see Joe Mauer , circa 2009 then 2010…and then 2011. Or, if that isn’t good enough, just google
the name ‘Scott Cousins’ and follow the video.
- If
your league allows trading of draft picks, I’d not move out of the top 3, but
I’d happily move from the 4 or 5 slot down if someone wants to move up.
General
thoughts about 1B:
- This
is a position that merits close watching this year. Among the big names, I’d avoid Adrian Gonzalez and Mark
Teixeira. Both have walk rates,
combined with age, that foretell significant risk.
- Youth
may be served, but which of the young up and comers will show a jump in
production? Will Allen Craig stay healthy? Will Paul Goldschmidt and Freddie
Freeman take the next step in production?
Will even less experienced 1Bmen, who range from Brandon Belt to Anthony
Rizzo to Chris Carter to Brandon Moss step up to Freddie Freeman production
levels? My betting is on
Goldschmidt to jump to the next level and Anthony Rizzo to really step up this
year.
- Adam
LaRoche seems to get lost amidst all the hype. All he’ll do is go .275-25-100 and score 75 runs if you’re
in a 5x5 league. He has upside
from that with realistic potential for 30 HRs (he hit 33 last year) and higher
RBI (Washington’s lineup is verrrrry good). He’s a great option if you miss out on the big names early
in the draft.
- Michael
Cuddyer could come cheap, too, given his oblique injury last year. If you’re into finding a player who you
can sneak in the later rounds, he’s potentially it…with .285/25 HR potential.
- Many
are touting Eric Hosmer for a rebound year. I’m not one of them.
Keep in mind he ended the year with a “minor” rotator cuff tear. Ick. Minor rotator cuff tear sounds awfully much like major
shoulder-induced power outage.
- In
a BA league, I recommend avoiding Mark Reynolds, Chris Davis, Carlos Pena and
Adam Dunn. All four have major
power potential. All four will
bomb your batting average; it’s merely whether the damage hurts or is fatal to
your BA. Ike Davis and Chris
Carter could potentially do the same, but both have upside that mitigates the
risk.
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