Random Ramblings of the Chancellor: Round 2 ...

Random ramblings of the chancellor, round 2:

Let’s talk more about the infield, starting with 2B:

-       We all know Robinson Cano is #1 among the second basemen.  I’d take him somewhere in the mid-first round.

-       You’ll see Pedroia and Kinsler go somewhere in the top 30.  Where it gets interesting is after the “big 3” of the second basemen and what questions need to be answered, like…

-       How good is Chase Utley’s knee?

-       Is Jason Kipnis the next Ian Kinsler?  Or will he do the screaming dive he did in the second half of 2012?

-       Is Brandon Phillips on the downside of his career?  If so, how much does he drop this year?

-       Which Aaron Hill will show up?

-       Do you risk Rickie Weeks having another nightmarish first half?

-       Do you risk Dan Uggla at all, given his 30 HR upside?

-       Will Jose Altuve step up with a questionable lineup around him? 

-       Of the group above, I like Aaron Hill for delivering the best value.  I’d avoid Dan Uggla like the plague.  I like Brandon Phillips, too, but plan on only 15 SB.

-       How long can you wait for Zobrist, given that he has SS eligibility this year?  If you want him, plan to spend a pick in the upper 40s to the 50s (5^th or 6^th round in a 10-team draft) or so to get him.

-       Can you take Danny Espinosa’s BA hit given that he contributes in four other categories.

-       Neal Walker – back issue ended his year last year.  I’d avoid.

-       Dustin Ackley disappointed last year.  With Seattle moving the fences in somewhat and another year of experience, I believe he’ll improve.

-       Omar Infante sure seems like he’s undervalued for deeper leagues.  Solid BA, 10-13 HR, 14-18 SB, and has an opportunity to get decent counting stats for a deep team.

General thoughts about SS:

-       All three of the top shortstops have big risks – Tulowitzki (health train wreck 2 of 3 years), Hanley Ramirez (I’ll play when I want to), and Jose Reyes (health).

-       Does Starlin Castro go to the next level?

-       Which of the power/speed combination shortstops do you grab – experience with Rollins, upside in Asdrubal Cabrera, or youth in Ian Desmond?  I like Desmond the best, but realize that .290+ is not likely to happen again. 

-       Will Elvis be in the house, or will we get all shook up if we burn too high of a pick on him?

-       Ben Zobrist qualifies at SS.  I strongly recommend him if you want multi-category performance and solid consistency.

-       For a lower-cost speed/BA play, I’d recommend going Alcides Escobar.  He showed a nice increase in plate discipline with a corresponding increase in BA.  Other options are Jean Segura and Erick Aybar. 

-       Want power out of SS?  Go with JJ Hardy but avoid Jhonny Peralta.  I’m not overly intrigued by Zack Cosart, either, but his home park is a plus.

-       Josh Rutledge.  Will likely start at 2B for the Rockies.  Has SS eligibility.  Tulo gets hurt a lot.  Did I mention he gets 81 games at the best hitting park in the Major Leagues?  If you want to wait on a SS, he’s the one.  But don’t wait too long – he’s getting a lot of positive press of late.

-       Derek Jeter will almost certainly be only a 2-dimensional player – runs and BA.  But despite his decline, 90 runs and a .290 BA aren’t bad at all.

-       Many are trumpeting the potential return of Dee Gordon.  As someone who drank that poison last year, avoid in all but deep leagues.  Living, breathing example of “you can’t steal first base”.

-       Alexei Ramirez…avoid.  Two straight years below .270, plunging OBP and SLG, and I don’t see 20 SBs again.

-       Billy Hamilton may eligible at SS.  If so, find out what the Reds plans are for him.  If he’s going to get anything approaching regular PT, he’s an incredible potential speed play.

-       In deeper leagues, I like Stephen Drew, Nick Franklin, and Eduardo Nunez to have high upside at lower cost/draft pick.  I’d avoid Marco Scutaro, Mike Aviles, and Yunel Escobar.

And then to the hot corner, 3B:

-       Yeah, Miguel Cabrera is awesome.  Unless you pick 1 or 2, you won’t even sniff him, so let’s move on.

-       Evan Longoria with a high pick?  Why?  The dude breaks faster than crystal in a roomful of opera sopranos.  He plays in a negative hitters park.  The last time he his 30 HR, he hit .244 to go along with it.  Unless Evan drops to around 40 or so in your draft, I can’t recommend him.

-       Ryan Zimmerman?  See Evan Longoria.

-       David Wright hates his home park.  He’s solid, but overrated in mock drafts I’ve seen.  I’ve seen him commonly going 12-17; I just don’t see him that valuable.

-       Adrian Beltre in Texas…mmmhmm, yes, I’d like some of that.  Probably a solid second round pick this year, though.

-       Hanley Ramirez has 3B eligibility, but SS is where what’ll move him up the board.

-       If you draft Aramis Ramirez, invention of a time-warp machine that skips April would be most helpful.  If not, get the antacids ready as he’s almost always been brutal the first 4-6 weeks.

-       The sight of Pablo Sandoval just ticks me off.  He could be Miguel Cabrera-lite, but he’s simply fat.  And has no desire to change it.

-       Martin Prado in Arizona….yes, now he’s a good option you can get much later than many others here.  Continues high BA with a probable power bump from playing in Arizona.

-       If you’re in a keeper league, go get Manny Machado if you can. 

-       Among the other young gun 3Bmen, I like Middlebrooks in Boston the best.  Everyone raves about Brett Lawrie, but I think he’s overrated in mock drafts.  I’ve been seeing him go in the 50s.  Seager and Chris Johnson showed some major improvements in their games.  Moustakas…I’ll pass.

-       Todd Frazier was toxic waste to fantasy teams in September last year.  But he plays in Cinci, and if he has 3B eligibility in your league, he’s a decent guy to get later.

-       Pedro Alvarez = Adam Dunn of 3B.  Batting average death, but 30-40 HR and 90-100 RBI.  Strangely enough, PNC Park plays very negative to hitters.

In deeper leagues, I like two older guys who may well platoon – Jeff Keppinger and Wilson Betemit.  I also think Kevin Youkilis could return well on investment.