Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Fantasy Article Part 2 by Brian Worcester

12 Posts Today: 6 Injury updates, 4 articles, a video, some fun stuff, and Part 2 of Brian Worcester's Fantasy Draft Day ...  /  A really great weekend coming up w/ great article's, video's, some fun stuff, and of course Super Saturday & Video Sunday 12 ... Don't miss it!  /  Thank you for visiting and thank you for your donation's ...  /  Have a Tremendous Thursday!!!

Until next time, so long everybody ...

Lee [ Cowboy ]

Lee Cress
PO Box 542
Dumont, Co.
80436


                                                Fantasy Draft Day  Part 2  by Brian Worcester



14            B. Wilson            Prado            J. Garcia            Carpenter            Hellickson            Crisp            Pineda              Beachy              Beckett            Francouer
                                                                                                                                                            ß Pick Direction

And starting pitchers fly off the board in round 14, beginning with my pick of Josh Beckett.  I toyed with taking Garza here, as Beckett’s possible thumb injury did make me nervous.  Typically, I’m perfectly willing to prostitute myself in all of my fantasy sports, but taking a Cub at this point just was a line I wasn’t willing to cross.   Martin Prado is a particularly inspired pick here – he has multiple years prior to last year of .800+ OPS, 3B/OF eligibility, and a young and improving lineup around him.  Plus, his likely reason for last year’s dropoff was due to an unusual infection, not a lingering injury.

15            Garza            Swisher            Scutaro            Marcum            Buchholz            Fowler               I. Davis            Cespedes            Bourjos            Jh. Peralta
                                    Pick Direction à

Both Garza and Swisher leading off the round are excellent picks loaded with value.  Ike Davis and Cespedes are excellent risks at this point in the draft.  I like Bourjos blend of power and speed, plus figure his defense will keep him in the lineup even if he slumps a bit.  However, I should be very careful to watch OBP going forward – Stubbs and Bourjos together could really train wreck that category if I’m not careful.

16            G. Sanchez  E. Santana   Chacin             Freese            Hanrahan            J. Zimmerman  Scherzer            Santos            Goldschmidt              T. Hanson
                                                                                                                                                            ß Pick Direction

Looking at what was left on the board, I liked Gaby Sanchez and Goldschmidt to best provide solid SLG and RBI without burying my OBP.  After seeing rumors that Miami would be a pitchers park, I decided to go with Goldschmidt in Arizona.

I really like both Tommy Hanson and Jordan Zimmerman to provide great SP value from this round.  Hanson comes with risk due to shoulder issues at the end of last year, but he could provide high-end #1 SP numbers.  JZim comes with less risk, and will also provide elite ERA and WHIP.

17            Putz            Motte            Worley             Kipnis              Moustakis            Al. Ramirez            Bailey            Morrow            League             Fister
                                    Pick Direction à

Closer run, part deux.  I’ve managed to wait until round 17, but figure it’s about time to get 2 or 3 closers in the next few rounds.  I really like League, despite Seattle’s likely dismal record.  Even though they’ll be awful, I figure most of their wins will be close games and League will still get plenty of opportunities.  I like Alexei Ramirez here – he’s about as solid as they come, with 80 runs-70 RBI-10 SBs along with an acceptable .730ish OPS.  Low risk, moderate reward, and a guy who a manager rarely has to worry about.

18            An. Sanchez            Marmol  Street            Joyce            Kuroda             Farnsworth            Lind            K. Johnson            Walden            C. Pena
                                                                                                                                                            ß Pick Direction

Farnsworth is probably the smart pick here for a closer, but for those of us who have played fantasy baseball as long as I have, the taint of Farny is something I just didn’t want to risk on my team.  Kelly Johnson is a very interesting pick here – if he hits as he has in the past two even years (’08, ’10), it’s a great pick.  If like ’09 and ’11….ouch.  I like Kuroda – I’ve seen many predict his demise going from Chavez Ravine to Yankee Stadium and higher octane offenses in the AL East versus NL West, but I believe the hit in ERA/WHIP will be much less significant than believed given his excellent control and his ability to control left-handed hitters.

19            Presley            Tabata             J. Montero            T. Hudson            Guerra            Willingham            Luebke             L. Morrison            Cueto            Boesch
                                    Pick Direction à

Normally, I avoid players with back problems, but Cueto was too enticing at this point to pass up.  Still young and improving, he has dominant stuff to go with a nasty attitude.  Plus, he’s in the same division as the Cubs and Pirates, and that HAS to be good for four or five good outings.

Lee snuck Montero in as his catcher pick at this point, which was an exceptional move.  Logan Morrison should provide good value here, assuming he’s learned his lesson concerning Tweeting about Marlin management.

20            Helton            Masterson            Dunn            Bourgeios            Minor            Headley            A. Jackson            Betancourt            Pierre             JJ Hardy
                                                                                                                                                ß Pick Direction

Juan Pierre?  What cup of stupid was I drinking from?  Or, in the immortal words of Socrates, “I drank WHAT?!?”  I’d like to provide an excuse for this pick, but I simply can’t.  I was only on my second fermented adult beverage, still had a full list of players in front of me, and didn’t have a concussion.  What’s worse is every other pick in this round is a solid to excellent pick.  The only redeeming factor in this pick is that a missed 20th rounder won’t hurt my feelings too much when I summarily execute him in the first week of cuts. 

Hardy and Jackson are great picks this round, Dunn and Helton are worthwhile risks.  I had Dunn last year, but was fortunate to have drafted three other 1Bmen, so benching him was pretty simple. 

21            Alonso             Carlos Lee            Dempster            Baker            K. Morales            Rasmus            J. Santana  W. Rodriguez  U. Jimenez  C. Perez
                                    Pick Direction à

And not only was my pick of J-Wan Pierre monumentally lame, Kendry Morales was still on the board.  A number of good, solid picks this round, but Morales certainly is the best of the lot.  After taking Pierre, I have two pitcher slots and one MI slot open.   I had hopes for Wandy; dashed again right in front of me.  I decided to go for an Ubaldo recovery year, his capability to strikeout 190-200 is very alluring if he can keep his ratios in check.

22            Y. Molina            Raburn             G.Holland            Lilly            Capps            E. Jackson            Hafner            Encarnacion            Espinosa            N. Feliz
                                                                                                                                                                        ß Pick Direction

So, with a MI and P slot still available in the draft, I go for another power-speed guy with OBP risk in Espinosa.  Some of us never learn.  My OBP is gonna freeze deeper than the ninth circle of Hell.

I really like Encarnacion and Lilly this late.  Encarnacion really put it together last year and could be a huge value.  Ted Lilly isn’t quite as durable as he used to be, but 180 IP of mid-3s ERA, 1.1 ish WHIP, and a respectable strikeout rate are still very valuable here.  I should have taken him here and rolled the dice on my MI in round 23.  Neftali Feliz is a great risk/reward opportunity at this point.  I don’t believe, but I certainly can’t criticize a swing at a guy who could deliver 180ish Ks and strong ratios.

23            Cahill            Danks            Desmond            Vogelsong            Nova            D. Holland            D. Young            Pagan              B. Myers            G. Parra

Final round of the draft, requiring everyone to fill out their rosters.  As is normal for a 10-team mixed draft, there’s still quality starting pitching on the board; I decide to pick up a back-end closer in Myers.  D. Young is an inspired pick; he’ll hurt in OBP but can still put up counting numbers and decent SLG.  None of the starters drafted are bad choices, but I particularily like Holland – I had him targeted for an early reserve pick.

R1            Cozart     L. Cain            de Aza            Quentin            Harper             Hill            Balfour            A. Rios            G. Jones            McCarthy
                                                                                                                                                                        ß Pick Direction

I take Garrett Jones on the hope he’ll win out full-time play, but that didn’t work out well.  Balfour’s a great saves pickup this late, and de Aza and Cain should provide excellent speed options for their teams.

R2            JD Martinez            Thornton            I. Stewart            Revere            R. Howard            C. Lewis            Torii Hunter            W. Ramos            Stauffer            Kubel

With our DL option, I was surprised Ryan Howard made it this far.  Colby Lewis and Kubel are the other top picks I see here.  Stauffer gives me some free SP depth, as I can stash him on the DL until he’s ready.   Petco Park is the best thing for pitchers since the spitball, no?

R3            Marshall            Guthrie            Ogando   S. Smith            Billingsley            LaHair             Belt            K. Jensen            Liriano             Kotchman
                                                                                                                                                                        ß Pick Direction

I’m not a believer in Spring Training performance, except to see if a player is back from injury or not.  Liriano looked good in Spring Training – good velocity, good slider bite, decent location.  I’ve always been a big Billingsley fan, so I don’t know why I didn’t grab him…well, yes I do.  I had inadvertently scratched him off my draft list, thinking he’d been taken earlier.  Ooops.  Fail #2, though nowhere near the epic fail level of Juan Pierre.  Seth Smith is a talented player, and puts up good numbers every year, but he’ll drive you nuts in a weekly change league unless you’re willing to invest the time to see how many lefties the A’s will face every given week.  Sean Marshall should be closing in Cinci with Madson’s arm falling off, but he’s under the most pitching-evil coach in baseball, Dusty Baker.  It’s simply a question of whether Baker wrecks Marshall’s arm this year or next, but like the Pirates being bad, and Bobby Valentine making foolish quotes, it’s inevitable.

R4            Carp            Romo               A. Reed            Mayberry            J. Johnson            Venters            Trout            Floyd            S. Rodriguez            Clippard
            Pick Direction à

Many don’t believe in Johnson as a closer, but he could do well.  Venters is a beast and would close on any team without Kimbrel or Mo Rivera.  I really liked the Romo pick since Wilson’s elbow was already barking, though that ended up not working out.  I like multi-position flexibility out of one of my reserves, so I took Sean Rodriguez. 

R5            Sale            Soto            Rizzo            Dickey                 Morneau            Venable            Beckham            Smoak                Moreland            J. Bay
                                                                                                                                    ß Pick Direction

Mr. Irrelevant…Chris Sale.  Yow.  That’s the “best last” pick I’ve ever seen.  Morneau’s the other inspired pick – I’m very skeptical that he’ll be able to come back from post-concussion syndrome as anything resembling the player he was, but for a final reserve round pick, he’s worth a shot.  Target Park suppresses power a lot, so his upside is limited, but I like the swing at him.

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